I’ve been having some fun with numbers these past couple of weeks on my Light Over Heat YouTube channel, trying to figure out how many American adults own how many AR15-style rifles.
Of course, no one really knows. But I am trying to make some educated guesses based on the data that is available. In Light Over Heat #121, I gave some estimates. Then following the posting of that video, the gun violence reporting initiative, The Trace, provided some additional data I used to update the estimates once again in Light Over Heat #122.
Some bottom line, minimum estimates on AR-15s from round 1:
- At least 1 in 20 American adults (5%) own them, i.e., at least 12.5 million people.
- At least 1 in 5 gun-owning adults (20%) own them.
- There are at least 23 million in circulation, and probably closer to 28 million or more.
More details in Light Over Heat #121.
This week, The Trace estimated that there are 392,000,000 million guns in circulation in the U.S. Based on that total gun stock, there are at least 27 million in circulation, owned by at least 16 million American adults.
See the calculations in Light Over Heat #122.
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Gun Culture 2.0 
Howdy Dave…
1. That number’s likely somewhat higher due to the number of homebuilt ‘80%’ lower receivers (frames) – self-built & not tracked and no FFL entry or mfgr logbook entry. [Some states, like CA, required these ‘FMBUS’ firearms – “Firearm Mfgd by Unlicensed Subject” – to be registered around ~7-8 yrs ago.]
Many folks built up a bunch of these ‘just for fun’/’just in case’ – even if they had factory-mfg ARs purchased already. These receivers may or may not have transitioned into fully-assembled rifles (or pistols) or were ‘built up lowers’ with trigger groups waiting for new uppers, etc. [An AR ‘upper’ is the barreled upper action – barrel, bolt + carrier, upper receiver, gas tube, sights, gas lock etc. and is not a serialized nor a controlled entity.]
2. Broad colloquial ‘AR15’ term includes a lot of other guns that may have wildly different make/model designation – which may have slipped thru analyses & not be recognized as a member of that category.
Depending on who’s scanning a list, would “Ameetec Arms” trigger recognition as an AR gun?
[Conversely, some guns in cal 223/5.56 with unrecognized brands/models may have been incorrectly categorized as ARs even though they’re a completely different architecture or bolt gun etc.]
3. When is an AR not an AR (or vice versa)?
Many externally similar-to-AR appearance guns stray from the Stoner pattern:
– 22LR or other rimfire cal. ARs with vastly different internals and lightweight materials, although overall appearance maintained;
– rifles/pistols using a piston system instead of traditional Stoner AR15/M16 direct impingement gas system;
– a buncha guns from Sig, for example, that are substantively different, but fit in the overall “AR theme” – and which are sold into that marketing slot – and use AR mags and have similar form factor, some shared accessories, etc.e
– large-caliber ARs like the AR10 in 308/7.62×51 – which are physically much larger & heavier than traditional 5.56/223 ARs;
– special ‘deviant’ products like the FightLight carbine – uses an AR upper & AR mags, but has a proprieetary specially-designed lower receiver to fit a conventional Remington shotgun stock with no pistol grip, using a special buffer and custom fire control components. This allows a completely ‘normal rifle’ look for stock and grip mechanism.
Bill Wiese
San Jose CA
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